Results of the Development of the Global Military-Political Situation in 2025 in the Context of Ukraine’s National Interests
Part 2
Part II. The United States, Europe, and the New Euro-Atlantic and European Security System
Western partners who helped Ukraine resist Russia were important for Ukraine. As a rule, those were the USA and Europe, which consider Moscow’s aggressive actions a threat to their own security and view Ukraine as one of the main forces in containing it. At the same time, the USA, as the world’s leading and most powerful country, had a significant impact on the overall situation in international relations. In this regard, its main rival was China.
However, after Donald Trump returned to the presidency in January 2025, Washington’s policy became extremely ambiguous for both Ukraine and the whole world. The reason for this was Trump’s priorities, – the pursuit of exclusively national and private interests, including at the expense of other countries.
For its part, Europe, in the form of the EU, the European component of NATO, and key European countries, pursued a clear policy of ensuring common security, economic development, and strengthening the region’s position. As part of this policy, Europe remained on Ukraine’s side on all issues of utmost importance to it. Despite the intensification of contradictions between the USA and Europe over certain aspects of Trump’s course, they remained integral parts of the Western world and were in a single political, economic, and security space. Ukraine is actively integrating into this space and has already become an integral part of it.
2.1. The USA
The USA’s foreign policy and the domestic situation in the country were largely determined by the priorities of Donald Trump, who took office for a second term in January 2025. At first glance, his actions were chaotic and unpredictable in nature. However, in reality, they followed a clear logic based on his concept of “America First”. The impression of inconsistency in Trump’s position arose after his public statements, which in many cases were made under the influence of his emotions and various external influences.
The key aspects of D. Trump’s course were officially enshrined in the new US National Security Strategy in November 2025. At the same time, he began to implement them immediately after returning to the White House. Thus, Trump clearly declared the supremacy of US interests and his intention to defend them vigorously, including through the use of military force.
He identified the main interests as maintaining the existing balance of power in the world and preventing any country that could pose a threat to America from achieving global or regional dominance. In addressing this issue, it was envisaged that a realistic policy would be pursued towards other countries, taking into account their importance to the USA.
In this regard, D. Trump continues to view China as a geopolitical rival and competitor of the USA in the world. Therefore, he has identified containing China as a priority for his country. At the same time, unlike during his previous presidential term, D. Trump has recognized the need to normalize relations with China as the second most powerful center of power in the world.
Therefore, along with measures to counter China at the global level and in the Asia-Pacific region and pressure on it in the economic sphere in order to balance trade between the two countries, D. Trump has resumed strategic dialogue with Beijing. A landmark event was the meeting between D. Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on October 30, 2025, in South Korea on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. The parties agreed on joint responsibility for global stability and the development of the global economy, although differences remained on a number of other issues. The main ones are the struggle for influence in the world and in individual regions, unification of the United States’ opponents around China, which the United States considers the “axis of evil”, as well as differences in the principles of building bilateral trade and economic relations. In D. Trump’s view, all this requires both stepping up measures to neutralize threats to the United States from China and reducing dependence on China in critical areas, particularly in the supply of rare earth materials.
According to D. Trump’s concept, Europe remains the leading ally of the United States. Its importance to the United States is special. The EU is its largest trading partner, and NATO is an instrument of military counteraction against adversaries. Therefore, D. Trump has confirmed that the United States is interested in a strong Europe and is ready to continue to provide it with assistance in the security sphere within the framework of NATO. However, D. Trump believes that the need to strengthen the USA’s ability to contain China requires that part of American efforts be redirected from the European to the Asia-Pacific theater.
Given this necessity, Trump began to insist that Europe take greater responsibility for its own security, including an increase in defense spending by European NATO members. The European community responded ambiguously, which led to a complication of relations between Europe and the USA. Some politicians and citizens perceived Trump’s demands as his intention to abandon Europe and leave it on its own with Russia. However, the parties managed to reach an agreement on this issue and begin building a new Euro-Atlantic and European security system.
The main contours of the new architecture of joint security between America and Europe were defined by mid-2025, which allowed the USA to begin reducing its military presence in Europe. In particular, about 800 marines were withdrawn from Romania and Bulgaria. However, the USA retained mechanisms for the rapid return and build-up of its troops in the European theater of operations should the need arise.
Unlike his predecessors, D. Trump refused to publicly define Russia as a military adversary of the USA and advocated for the restoration of cooperation with it. The reason for this was D. Trump’s desire to gain benefits for the USA and for himself through joint economic projects with Russia in the extraction of its mineral resources and in the energy sector. He was most interested in access to Russian reserves of rare earth materials. In this way, D. Trump hoped to reduce the USA’s dependence on China in an area that China had effectively monopolized.
Besides, D. Trump considered it expedient to establish cooperation with Russia on nuclear arms control and the fight against terrorism. According to many experts, he also planned to “tear” Russia away from China and thus weaken it. However, it turned out that it was impossible to undermine Russian-Chinese ties because China had already effectively subjugated Russia economically.
These issues were discussed during the meeting between D. Trump and Putin in August 2025 in Alaska and were made directly dependent by the US President on Russia ending the war against Ukraine. Despite D. Trump’s position, the meeting further reassured Putin that the American president supports Russia. However, in reality, the attitude towards Russia remained largely unchanged. As before, the USA considered it a major source of military threats to its security and a competitor in the global energy market. This was confirmed by US military exercises both at the national level and as part of NATO in the European theater of operations. Most of them were directed specifically against the Russian Federation.
Based on the above, D. Trump took measures to neutralize Russia by undermining its economy. This was mainly achieved by lowering global oil prices and squeezing Russia out of European and global energy markets (mainly Chinese, Indian, and Turkish). These actions by the USA caused more damage to Russia than all the sanctions since 2014 combined. It was the new sanctions that triggered the crisis in the Russian economy at the end of 2025. However, the USA probably does not intend to eliminate Russia as a whole state, following the example of the former USSR, but only seeks to influence it and force it to give up its aggressive policy.
Trump’s interests in Russia have shaped the USA’s rather ambiguous attitude to Ukraine and the Russian-Ukrainian war. On the one hand, he tried to force Ukraine to make concessions in favor of the Russian Federation in order to end the war as quickly as possible and begin implementing joint economic projects with Russia. On the other hand, he used the war as a way to deplete Ukraine’s resources. To this end, he essentially encouraged Putin to ensure that the fighting continued and did not yield any tangible results. This issue has already been discussed in more detail in the first part of the article.
One of D. Trump’s priorities was to establish the USA’s dominance in the Western Hemisphere. However, as in many other areas, his actions in this sphere were quite controversial. Immediately after returning to power, Trump made a series of scandalous statements in which he called on Canada to join the USA and also made claims to Greenland. This caused outrage in Canada and Denmark and alarmed Europe, where such statements by the US President were perceived as undermining the unity of the Western world. Russia, on the other hand, began to hope that it would be able to negotiate with the USA on the division of the world.
However, D. Trump later moved on to more concrete actions to implement his plans. In the autumn of 2025, the USA began preparations to overthrow the regime of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, who was accused of usurping power in the country and organizing drug smuggling to America. However, in reality, the USA seeks to regain access to Venezuela’s oil reserves, which are considered to be the largest in the world. Besides, Maduro pursued an openly anti-American, pro-Russian, and pro-Chinese policy, which contradicts US interests.
As part of these plans, the USA deployed a powerful naval force led by an aircraft carrier strike group around Venezuela, stationed strike aircraft on neighboring islands, and sent special forces to Venezuelan territory. At the same time, it demanded that Maduro voluntarily give up power. However, he refused and began to stall for time. In response, on January 3, 2026, the USA carried out a lightning operation, during which American special forces captured Maduro and transported him to the USA.
Trump’s actions demonstrate his determination to defend US interests in a region of the world that is strategically important to the USA. Despite the fact that this operation was condemned by part of the international community and recognized as a violation of international law, D. Trump demonstrated his willingness to do the same with other Caribbean countries whose policies are anti-American.
At the same time, D. Trump is trying to strengthen the USA’s position in other important regions of the world, support regional partners, and weaken opponents. For example, the USA openly sided with Israel in its military confrontation with Iran in the Middle East. In June 2025, the USA conducted a joint operation with Israel, during which strikes were carried out on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. In this way, Iran was forced to “make peace”. At the same time, American sanctions destroyed the Iranian economy and led to widespread unrest in the country against the government.
Meanwhile, D. Trump set about further developing relations with the USA’s allies in the Asia-Pacific region. The main ones remain Japan, South Korea, and Australia, which are important to the USA because they are a bulwark against China in the Asia-Pacific region and trade and economic partners. To this end, in October 2025, D. Trump participated in the APEC summit in South Korea and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Malaysia. During his visit to the Asia-Pacific region, he also visited Japan.
Trump’s steps to promote American interests in the post-Soviet space, which Russia considers its zone of exclusive influence, were demonstrative. In this regard, the USA played a key role in the reconciliation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In August 2025, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a peace agreement in the presence of D. Trump. The so-called Zangezur corridor, connecting Azerbaijan with its province of Nakhchivan through Armenian territory, was transferred to US control. The signing ceremony took place at the White House. This ended the 35-year Azerbaijani-Armenian war, which was provoked by Moscow in 1989.
It is also worth noting Donald Trump’s meeting with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan in November 2025 in Washington. The official aim of the meeting was to deepen cooperation with Central Asian countries in the extraction of natural resources and energy security, as well as in the development of transport corridors connecting those countries with the outside world. At the same time, D. Trump had deeper goals – to strengthen the USA’s position in Central Asia and reduce the influence of Russia and China there.
Trump’s personal “peacemaking” ambitions were reflected in his foreign policy. He claims to have ended eight wars, including those between Cambodia and Thailand, Kosovo and Serbia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, India and Pakistan, Israel and Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, and Israel and Hamas. According to most estimates, he hopes to receive the Nobel Peace Prize for this. The desire to receive it is also one of the driving forces behind his efforts to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, in some cases, the wars and conflicts that D. Trump supposedly ended resumed after a while.
In an effort to strengthen the USA’s position in the global economy and ensure the positive development of the American economy, Trump and his administration made certain efforts to this end. This mainly involved balancing trade and economic relations with other countries, making the USA the world’s leading energy producer and strengthening control over the global energy market, creating conditions for the return of American companies’ production to the USA, and maintaining America’s scientific and technological advantage over other countries.
Trump’s main tool for achieving these goals was a sharp increase in tariffs (import duties) on goods from most countries that were supplied to the American market. The world perceived the USA’s actions as a full-scale trade war with global losses, including for America itself. The most significant of those was the possible emergence of critical problems in global trade and economy as a result of the expected refusal of most of the USA’s partners to cooperate with it. At this, it was predicted that they would reorient themselves towards other leading world powers, primarily China, which would contribute to strengthening its position and gaining a strategic advantage over the USA.
Trump’s tariff policy has indeed complicated the USA’s relations with other countries and negatively affected the global economy. At the same time, no one has been able to give up trade with the USA due to the inability to compensate for losses by diversifying their trade and economic ties. As a result, the USA’s partners were forced to make concessions and conclude new trade agreements on American or compromise terms. This outcome was important for the USA from both an economic and political point of view. The USA managed to improve its trade balance and obtain additional tax revenues. At the same time, the increase in import tariffs stimulated the resumption of operations in the USA by American companies that had previously moved their production facilities abroad. Due to high tariffs, it became more profitable to produce goods in the USA than to import them from other countries, even with more expensive labor. New jobs were created in the USA, which reduced the unemployment rate.
Politically, the USA confirmed its ability to impose its will on other countries or their unions. The trade agreements with the EU and China, concluded in July 2025, were of the greatest importance to America. They are key trading partners of the United States of America. Therefore, reaching compromises with them on terms favorable to itself allowed the USA to improve its trade balance.
Plus, as part of a trade agreement with the EU, which included a wide range of provisions, the USA forced the European Union to abandon imports of Russian energy resources. The EU committed to purchasing liquefied gas, oil, and nuclear fuel from the USA by 2028 for a total of $750 billion. In doing so, the USA pushed Russia out of the European energy market. The USA’s trade agreement with China remains a framework agreement for now. However, it provides a basis for further work and serves as a favorable foundation for deepening cooperation between the USA and China in the political sphere.
In an effort to ensure the USA’s energy independence and dominate the global energy market, D. Trump has taken certain measures to increase oil and gas production within the country. Restrictions on hydrocarbon exploration and production on federal lands and in offshore areas, including Alaska and the Arctic, have been lifted, and support for shale oil and gas producers has been strengthened. In addition, D. Trump persuaded Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and several other countries to take similar decisions, which also increased oil production. As a result of Trump’s actions, there was an oil surplus and global oil prices fell, which improved economic conditions in the USA. At the same time, the USA strengthened its position in the global energy market. America’s access to Venezuelan energy resources after the overthrow of Maduro’s regime will further strengthen the USA’s influence in this market. D. Trump’s next step in this direction could be to support unrest in Iran and change the government there, which would allow America to take control of Iran’s oil reserves. All this will help the US achieve a dominant position in the global energy market.
Apart from this, D. Trump has improved opportunities for domestic and foreign investment in science, technology, and innovation, which contributes to their development. This primarily concerned the development and mass implementation of artificial intelligence systems. The USA remains the leader in this field.
These processes reflect the dynamics of the US economy in 2025. In the first quarter, it fell by 0.3–0.5% due to D. Trump’s tariff wars. In the second quarter, it grew by 3.8% as a result of increased oil and gas production in the USA. And in the third quarter, it strengthened by 4.3% as a result of the country’s successful economic policy. For comparison, in 2024, US GDP grew by only 2.8%.
Trump’s foreign policy activities were supported by measures to increase US military capabilities. D. Trump set a goal of strengthening his country’s Armed Forces and maintaining their position as the world’s number one military power. However, the main directions of development of the US Armed Forces remained largely unchanged and included: modernization of weapons; transition to high-tech warfare with extensive use of artificial intelligence systems, UAVs, hypersonic missiles, etc.; development of the concept of network-centric warfare; and increasing the flexibility and mobility of troops.
As before, increased attention was paid to maintaining the high combat readiness of the missile and nuclear component of the US Armed Forces and updating their combat equipment. In 2025, the USA’s military spending increased to a record level of about $900 billion.
Trump’s domestic policy focused mainly on optimizing the work of government agencies and reducing budget expenditures, reforming the tax system, and strengthening control over migration processes.
Trump conducted an audit of government agencies to ensure that they were functioning as intended. As a result, a number of structures and civil servants deemed redundant were cut. This work was carried out under the leadership of billionaire Elon Musk, whom D. Trump appointed as head of the new Office of Management and Budget.
A large-scale tax reform called “The Big Beautiful Bill” was carried out, which included tax cuts for individuals and companies to stimulate economic development. The USA reached an agreement with the G7 countries to create an alternative tax system for American companies in order to avoid global tax conflicts.
Along with this, D. Trump began to implement tough measures to tighten control over migration processes. In particular, these measures include: imposing additional restrictions on entry into the USA and stay on American territory; identifying and deporting illegal migrants who are in the country illegally. As part of these efforts, new digital technologies were actively used to track individuals without legal status.
Under the pretext of ensuring internal security, the powers of law enforcement agencies were expanded, control over social networks was tightened, and some of them, in particular TikTok, were banned. D. Trump also attempted to restrict media freedom and shut down state-funded media outlets, but was unable to do so completely.
Trump’s actions regarding government agencies, migrants, and the media caused discontent among many Americans. There was even a wave of mass protests and riots in the USA. The most high-profile protests took place in Los Angeles in June 2025 and were directed against the oppression of migrants. The US authorities used the National Guard to suppress the protests.
The media launched an active campaign against D. Trump, accusing him of oppressing democracy, usurping power, violating the country’s Constitution, and promoting Russia’s aggressive course. Based on public sentiment and D. Trump’s actual violations of US law, the courts overturned some of his immigration orders.
A series of high-profile scandals arose in D. Trump’s inner circle. In May 2025, D. Trump dismissed National Security Advisor Michael Volz, who proved to be incompetent and unsuitable for the job. And in June of the same year, D. Trump removed E. Musk from the government as a result of sharp disagreements between them over a draft law on government spending.
The political struggle between D. Trump and the Republican Party (RP) on the one hand and the Democratic Party (DP) on the other also continued. D. Trump’s opponents used all his miscalculations and the internal and external problems of the United States against him. Following D. Trump’s actions in previous years, in the autumn of 2025, DP representatives in the US Congress blocked the adoption of the state budget, which temporarily suspended the activities of government structures.
This led to a complicated domestic situation in the USA and a drop in D. Trump’s popularity.
Despite all the current problems, the USA has not only kept its global leadership but also strengthened it. At the same time, the American economy has also strengthened. In other words, D. Trump’s policies can generally be considered successful, even though they have led to turbulence in the world and in the USa itself.
Yurii Mykhailenko,
Institute for Global Politics
(Image generated by neural network)
